Ernesto Macias, EPIA President, highlighted that the attendance at the 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition has almost doubled in comparison with last year, with more than 4000 scientists and 750 companies. He insisted that it was now time for the Photovoltaic Industry to think bigger.

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Hans-Josef Fell, member of the German Parliament, indicated that the European objective to produce 20% of its final energy consumption from renewables by 2020 was ambitious but insufficient for climate protection and EU energy supply security. He specified that the renewable energy industry was capable of more as demonstrated by the success of Wind energy in Germany. He emphasized the importance of the Feed-in-Tariff which has proven its efficiency and which is, according to him, the most cost-effective tool to promote renewables. Mr. Fell also underlined that the actual success of RES could not be forecast by the International Energy Agency and that it was time to create a new International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). He finished his speech outlining the importance of joining forces among Renewable Energy industries and that renewables are the only way for the future of energy.
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Dr. Winfried Hoffmann, EPIA Vice-President, assured that the PV industry was ready to go further, but still needed support programs to bridge the gap until photovoltaic reaches grid parity. He indicated that the worldwide PV market was around 2,4 GWp in 2007 and would reach 6 to 10 GW in 2010 according to different estimates. He emphasized the growth of electricity prices which will accelerate the way to grid parity. Dr. Hoffmann also underlined that off-grid PV used for rural electrification would play an increasing role in the future and presented the main results from EPIA Solar Generation V.
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Dr. Matthias Fawer indicated that thin film would see a rapid expansion over the coming years even if no possible winner could be identified yet. He explained how the PV industry’s dependence on support schemes was more obvious and sensitive in today’s unstable market conditions and that there was a need to identify new attractive markets and to reduce costs by going into a supply-driven market. He added that the world market could reach 18 GWp in 2012 and that it was the right time to invest in solar.
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Michael Schmela pointed out the effects of too-high incentives for photovoltaics causing a price increase for photovoltaic systems, as was the case in Spain. He proposed introducing a progressive Feed-in-Tariff scheme in which tariffs would increase proportionally with electricity prices. His proposal would help to show that photovoltaics can compete with both household and wholesale electricity prices from now on and that there is no need for caps.
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Ernesto Macias explained the importance of keeping an important market such as Spain since the photovoltaic market is concentrated mainly on 5 markets (Germany, Spain, Japan, US and Italy). He highlighted the need to find new markets and to spread forces worldwide. He indicated that each photovoltaic company should develop its home market and that photovoltaics should enter developing country markets as the photovoltaic industry is getting more competitive.
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Supply and demand of recent years, and those to come, is analyzed, both in the short and medium term. Supply capacity build-up has been following demand, driven by a strong political support. In order to smoothen out industry cycles and avoid overcapacities/ shortages, synchronization and harmonization of industry growth with governmental subsidy programs is necessary until grid-parity is in place.
Given the absorber material reserves for current mainstream PV-technologies, Si-based technologies remain the workhorse of the PV-industry in the long run, even though maybe not the least costing alternative at the moment.
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More than 40GW of production capacity has been announced for 2012, of which, Thin Film represents 35%. More than 100 companies have announced time frames and capacities for the build-up or increase of production capacities. Those are mainly in Europe, China, USA, Taiwan and Japan. The most expected technology is Silicon based thin film (a-Si), followed by CIS and CdTe. If production volume is ramped up according to plans, Thin Film PV has the potential to reach the 1 €/Wp cost target at the end of this decade. However, there exists a high uncertainty about the time schedule of more than 50% of the announced capacity increases.
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Silicon capacity expansions are carried out by experienced companies in the sector and will soon become a reality. Thin film technologies, which represented 16% of the production in 2007, will grow until 21% in 2010 but they won’t disrupt the mature c-Si technology.
Innovation was pointed out as the main cost reducer, as strong as economies of scale.
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Quality was pointed out as a very important cost driver. During the last few years, many aspects have been improved such as material usage, wafer thickness, reliability, inverter efficiency, etc. However, module efficiency is not increasing as expected. This is basically due to a high demand of silicon. It is difficult to reach high efficiencies with not so clean material.
Nevertheless, technologies like CI(G)S are showing good results with already 12% efficiency and are expected to improve rapidly.

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Mature c-Si was compared with silicon based Thin Film (a-Si). Module cost is lower for a-Si and has a bigger potential for Thin Film technologies in general. However, the cost of the module is just one aspect of the total cost. BOS component cost is much higher for Thin Film PV systems. Building integrated PV (BIPV) offers a good opportunity to reduce BOS costs especially in the case of a-Si.
It was pointed out that the best reference to compare technologies is €/KWh. For this reason, the performance of module technologies is compared by different air mass, temperatures and reaction to weak light.
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The value of PV in the overall electricity network is shown. PV and Wind power generation correlated perfectly. Furthermore, the recent study from ISET shows that up to 50 GW of PV can be integrated in Germany without additional investments in the network infrastructure; and that this power will help to reduce the peak load demand.
Regarding grid control, it was highlighted that harmonized grid requirements will reduce PV system costs. However, it is necessary that PV inverter manufacturers contribute to the draft of current and future grid requirements and guidelines.
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The total cost of a PV plant was analyzed. The purchase price represents up to 75% of the total cost, but other aspects, such as, technical operation, inverter guarantee, land lease, administrative issues, insurance, security and de-installation, represent an important part. Specific project examples in Germany and Spain were shown, in order to compare the cost/KWh when including financing costs. It is important to note that, so far, investors consider the value of PV for only 20 years.
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The European Commission (EC) published a Communication on a Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan on 22 November 2007. It includes a Solar Europe Initiative (SEI), which should focus on photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP). The initiative should be led by the industry, boost research and innovation, accelerate the deployment of technology and deliver progress beyond business as usual.
A. Milner explained that 50 top CEOs of the PV industry gathered together, on the 2nd of September in an exclusive meeting to redefine industry objectives in the framework of the SET Plan, taking into account the recent technology progress and the context of rising energy prices.
The industry unanimously agreed that photovoltaic energy could supply 12% of European electricity demand by 2020, which can be translated into approx. 350 GW peak capacity. This could be reached via further cost reductions, innovations, investment in education and R&D.
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Mr Rifkin stressed that human beings are currently living in an emergency situation, with four major problems at stake:

• climate change
• increasing debt worldwide
• increasing political instability in oil producing countriesµ
• peak oil (to happen between 2010 and 2030)

There would be only up to 15 years left to shift entirely the energy system from a centralised power generation to a distributed energy. This is why a “Third Industrial revolution” is needed.
The four pillars of the revolution proposed by J. Rifkin are the following:

1. Distributed energy:
   The 20% target agreed by the EU Heads of State for the contribution of renewable energy sources by 2020 in the EU implies reaching a 33% share of renewable electricity by 2020. 
2. Active buildings:
   Buildings could become positive power plants and habitats at the same time. 
3. Storage:
   Storage methods are needed to “facilitate the conversion of intermittent supplies of RES into reliable assets”. In this framework, hydrogen would offer many assets. 
4. Inter-grid:
   The smart inter-grid would be composed of mini grids; smart metering technology and sensing devices and chips embedded throughout the grid system.

J. Rifkin called upon the PV industry to get actively involved to ensure that this third industrial revolution turns into reality. In addition, he stressed the importance for the EU leaders to come up with a clear plan for the upcoming international climate change negotiations held in December this year in Copenhagen.

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