Session 2 : How to get back on track towards the Accelerated Scenario

M. Cameron, EPIA Vice-President, despite all the uncertainties of the 2009 market, presented EPIA’s global market forecasts up to 2013.  The challenging task was accomplished by showing two different possible scenarios: a “Moderate Scenario” assuming any major enhancement of existing support mechanisms forecasting 7,5 GW; a “Policy Driven Scenario” assuming the follow-up and the introduction of support mechanisms in a large number of countries forecasting about 19 GW. He described the expected developments of the most relevant markets. He welcomed the reintroduction of FITs in Japan and the impact it will have on the global market, he underlined the constant and structured development of the German one, he highlighted the potential of the key European markets, France, Italy and Spain underlining the presence of obstacles that still characterised these markets (administrative procedures). Moreover, he also focused on the expectations for the American, Chinese and Indian markets, concluding that even if the potential is huge they are “moving still along an uncertain path”.

W. Seeliger shared with the audience some of his in-depth knowledge about the current global market situation. First all, the oversupply condition was analysed and, despite large government programmes, was confirmed for the months to come. Secondly, the focus shifted to price competition which is supposed to continue because of the “relentless pressure through low-cost manufacturing”. Other important issues were discussed, like the enormous programmes launched in China (about 4GW up to 2011), the slower than expected US growth and the low profile of global annual growth rates (estimated at only 0,6% in 2009) compared to the previous year (128,7% in 2008 and 61,6% in 2007). Later on, an analysis of the European and Chinese competitive landscape was given. Key messages conveyed were the increasing cost-efficiency of the Chinese industry (up to 44%), the European need to boost innovation and productivity gains to compete against low-cost locations and market access opportunities for future development.

A. El Gammal, presented the purposes, benefits and objectives of the PV Observatory Project, launched by EPIA in order to begin the implementation of the SET For 2020 Roadmap. The project must be contextualized in the framework of the SET For 2020 PV penetration scenarios and aims at assuring a sustainable market growth and industry development. It will promote a win-win approach for governments, industry and citizens by identifying and disseminating the best practices across Europe concerning policy support frameworks and administrative and regulatory environments. Moreover, by pushing market transparency, it will open new markets and enhance the opportunities of the emerging ones. Giving some examples of what is considered a sustainable support scheme and what is not, he presented the process and the roadmap that will be followed by EPIA, which is committed to the long term sustainability of the PV industry and markets.

J. Hauff introduced the concept of the “investment competitiveness cases” showing that, in some European regions, PV is already competitive with other traditional energy sources, representing a valid and attractive investment option and that it will be so, more and more, for years to come. In terms of definition, “competitiveness cases” occur when “investment in PV is more economic than 25 years of electricity purchase from grid or CCGT peak power production”. Four market segments were analysed and electricity and system price assumptions were explained. According to this, some examples of already competitive cases have been given such as the south of Italy for residential, commercial and industrial applications, such as Malta for commercial ones and Cyprus for commercial and industrial. Moreover, a brief description of the ideal conditions and key factors for achieving these cases across Europe overall was furnished. Last but not least, a comparison with the investment competitiveness cases and the “grid parity” concept was given in order to clarify that this new vision better suits the investor perspective.

L. Dumarest presented the necessary framework conditions and critical boundaries needed to reach the Paradigm Shift scenario. Six PV framework conditions were identified: system integration requiring significant grid evolution and regulatory adaptations, cost competitiveness addressing aggressive cost reduction patterns and constant R&D efforts, market deployment sustained by new business models and adapted financing schemes, policy frameworks capable of assuring sustainable market growth and deployment and reducing administrative barriers, interaction with alternative RES and predictable approach in order to optimise the electrical system management and lastly the supply chain characterised by capacity rump-ups, secure raw material supply and increasing human resource competencies.

D. Botting analysed the concept of smart grids and applied it to the European Union context. Reminding of the European energy policy and its dimension in terms of challenges for the EU itself and for all Member States he identified the major issues to be addressed in order to put into practice the smart grid concept. The first part of the presentation was aimed at quantifying the efforts that will have to be made while the second part was on the explanation of the vision of future grids, therefore a comparison between the past and future grid was given. Concerning new elements, we can mention the extensive use of small and distributed generation close to end consumers, a coordinated, local energy management, full integration of DG and RES with large-scale central power generation, a flexible, optimal and strategic grid expansion, maintenance and operation and a harmonised legal framework facilitating cross-border trading of power and grid services.

Y.M. Saint-Drenan presented the results of a study which analyses the impact of a high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES)and especially Photovoltaics into the power system. The case study is based on Germany and the core message of the study is about “considering the time availability of the fluctuating RES, a power system with a high share of RES is feasible”; however, “the transformation of the current power system to a high-RES supply needs anticipation and planning for adapting the current structure”. This conclusion was supported by the strong correlation founded between Photovoltaics and Wind power generation. Other interesting results of the study to be mentioned are the positive impact of Photovoltaics on the power system (correlation between the PV feed-in with the electricity demand) and the technical feasibility of a 100% renewable energy supply into the power system.